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Stock Market Forecast 5-3-12 Bonds Correlation |
Stock Markets and US Treasury Bonds are strongly correlated with each other… i.e., inversely!!
Investors flock to US Treasury, (your would be surprised, despite all US problems), in the moment of stock markets turmoil, …. “flight to the safety”.
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TLT Chart 05-03-12, Bonds Forecast |
As you can see from the charts attached herein that bottoms in stock markets correlated with tops in bonds and reverse is true, that is, stock markets tops are correlated inversely to the bonds bottoms….
On the longer term , TLT (iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund Price) chart shows a big base with handle or simply put, a cup with handle, where handle just being formed above the strong price support levels. On daily chart of TLT, a clearer picture could shows that it has formed a bottom and has cleared all the overhead resistance levels, offered by the time cycles trend-lines.
http://trade-in-harmony.blogspot.com/
Was cued to look at the drastic drop in the ratio of CRB versus TY. Seems like dis-inflation is now happening, and when CRB drops below 290, deflation is in progress.
http://thekeystonespeculator.blogspot.com/2012/05/keystones-inflation-deflation-indicator.html
http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=CRY00
http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=CRY00&domain=crb&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W