I commence with my gratitude to The Ultimate Knower
Since the real start date of the rally (after it cleared the resistance of 06/21), the strength of the move up was breathtaking, and bothersome to me (in the absence of the volume of big buyers). Since July 5 (it has been 3 days) and today gap above the 5/31 or 6/01 high, forced me to go back and check on my notes of the dominant time cycles for the stock market. The underlying strength of price move (though not obvious from technical indicators, like volumes or sentiments) was trying to bring my attention to check up on longer term time cycles, as smaller time cycles are superseded by the strength of longer time cycles. Which can only be learned by (re-)viewing the history. History and time cycle generated by the previous history creates the current behavior of the financial markets.
Prudent traders ought to always re-evaluate their positions and stances, if a situation calls for it.
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| Stock Market time cycle analyses and forecast 7-7-11 |
07/08 is the “line in the sand”. ….
If the market continues to trend higher after 07/08 (which it will, deducted after my re-study of longer term time cycles earlier today), and “around” the 07/08 time cycle, if markets only consolidate and or retrace only a little, then my today’s review of history, tells me that time cycles have “reset” the count of the bull market. The time cycles have done, what they do best, change the trend. That means, June 16h low was real trigger for this change of trend. If I am correct in the assumption then bear market ‘serious leg down‘ has been averted for now (recent correction was merely a correction to set the stage for new run up in prices), and new bull market has started as of the retest of the swing lows on 06/23.
Future Outlook: Markets shall find some considerable resistance on 07/18, followed by time cycles of 8/04, 08/22 (8/30). Markets, however, shall continue to trend higher until 09/12-13, followed by a double top (lower or similar height) in first week of October and then the Sever correction extended over 8-9 months (which I was waiting to transpire now), and followed by another leg up into early 2013.
http://trade-in-harmony.blogspot.com/
The job market news tanked the stock markets today. How low will it go to and how long does this last ?
Hello Mr. Syed,
The job data depressed the market and DJI slumped for a hundred.
What will be your target of this "short" correction?
Will it be 38.2% (DJI 12397)?
Jeff
Does that hold true with gold and silver as well?
Would this rally takes silver to $50?
Thanks for your forecasts
Thanks for your update, so it's save to say the markets will go up until 09/12-13 with some minor corrections by time cycles of 7/18, 8/04, 8/22, 8/30.
does that hold true for world markets including gold and silver.
Thanks for your commentary. IMHO, the short-term line in the sand is the SP500 1325 level. If we impulsively go below this level on Monday, then, indeed, it portends badly for the market. If this support is held then we have another leg up.
—BDP
Please, can you update your gold and silver forecast? thanks
Mr. Syed, does your analysis change after the jobs report, or does the prior rally's intensity lead you to the same conclusion. many thanks.
How about I answer all of the question in one post.
Remain Blessed.